Member of The Egyptian Society of Technical Analyst
Head of Education department, Market Strategist, Chief Technical Analyst of Global Leading Forex Brokerage companies
Trained over 5000 professional trainers more than 10 years
BSc in Economics from Mansoura University
13 November 2019
New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 1:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already cut interest rates by 0.75% this year after a long period of stagnation and may do it again — slashing another 25 basis points and setting the Official Cash Rate at 0.75%. The rise of the unemployment rate to 4.2% has worried policymakers in Wellington. The rate cut is not fully priced in by markets so that any outcome may cause jitters not only in NZD/USD but also in other jurisdictions.
UK CPI: Wednesday, 9:30. Falling energy prices and an increase in the value of the pound imply another deceleration in inflation — from 1.7% to 1.6% in the report for October. Such a drop would justify the BOE’s newly-adopted dovish stance. The bank targets a rate of 2%. Core Consumer Price Index is set to remain unchanged at 1.7%, while the Retail Price Index is predicted to drop from 2.4% to 2.2%.
US CPI: Wednesday, 13:30. While the Federal Reserve has cited lower inflation as one of the main reasons for cutting interest rates, prices have picked up. Core CPI has accelerated to 2.4% as of September and is forecast to remain at that level once again in October. Any deviation is set to rock the dollar and feeds into the next event.
Powell testifies Wednesday, and Thursday at 15:00. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has signaled a pause after cutting rates for the third time in a row. However, the bar for raising rates in the future seems to be higher than cutting them. In his prepared remarks on Wednesday and also in lengthy responses to lawmakers on both days of testimony, Powell has the chance to provide updated insights. Apart from the recent inflation report, Powell’s comments on the latest upbeat jobs report may be of interest. He will also be grilled on trade policy but will likely dodge politically-sensitive comments.
NZD New Zealand rate decision
GBP UK CPI
USD US CPI Powell testifies
The pair is traded below a strong resistance level that is the down trendline shown on the chart in red. Therefore, we are bearish as long as the pair is traded below it. Our first target is 1.0926.
▪ 1.1200 ▪ 1.1180 ▪ 1.1150
▪ - ▪1.1060 ▪ 1.1000
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the downtrend line.
The chart above shows that the pair is traded above a strong support level that is 1.2770. Therefore, we are bullish as long as the pair is traded above it. Our first target is: 1.2970
▪ 1.36 ▪ 1.3310 ▪ 1.30
▪ - ▪ - ▪ 1.2770
We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1.2770.
As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded above a strong support level that is 1450. Therefore, we are bullish as long as the pair is traded above it. Our first target is: 1478.
▪ 1496 ▪ 1478
▪ 1450 ▪ 1430 ▪ 1425
We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1450.
The pair is about to reach a strong support level that is 0.6800. Therefore, we will be waiting for some bullish evidence to show up then we can go long targeting the level of 0.6900 during the week.
▪ 0.7550 ▪ 0.7600 ▪ 0.7000
▪ 0.68 ▪ 0.67 ▪ -
We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 0.6800.
The pair is traded within a very tight range shown on the chart above. The resistance level is 141 and the support level is 139. We think that it is better to wait for the pair to go beyond one of these levels then we can enter the market. In case the resistance level is broken, we can go long targeting the level of 143. On the other hand, if the level of 139 is broken then the door is open for the pair to reach the level of 138.
▪ 142.30 ▪ 142 ▪ 141
▪139 ▪ 138 ▪ 137
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