News & Research

Market Research & Info

Market Research & Info

Land-FX analyst Shadi Abdo

  • Member of The Egyptian Society of Technical Analyst
  • Head of Education department, Market Strategist, Chief Technical Analyst of Global Leading Forex Brokerage companies
  • Trained over 5000 professional trainers more than 10 years
  • BSc in Economics from Mansoura University

10 April 2019

powered by Land-FX

UK GDP: Wednesday, 8:30. The UK shifted to publishing GDP growth data on a monthly basis. Despite Brexit, the economy kicked off the year by growing by 0.5% m/m, a robust rate. A more modest rise of 0.2% is on the cards for February. The components of growth are also of interest: Manufacturing output, which leaped by 0.8% in January, is also forecast to advance by only 0.2%, while Construction Output is set to fall by the same scale.

ECB decision: Wednesday: decision at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. Back in March, the European Central Bank made a clear dovish twist, pushing back on its guidance regarding raising interest rates, announcing an upcoming new lending program for banks (TLTRO), and cutting forecasts. This time, the ECB convenes on a Wednesday for a change, does not publish new forecasts, and no policy announcement is due. Nevertheless, President Mario Draghi may provide fresh comments about the economic situation. There have been some tentative signs of a recovery in some places, but the general picture remains worrying. Will Draghi drag the euro down again? He may also say that details regarding the TLTRO will be set out in June. Announcing them now would be seen as a sign of concern and could weigh on the common currency.

US inflation: Wednesday, 12:30. The Consumer Price Index has decelerated in recent months due to lower energy prices and it could now pick up again. Month over month, a rise of 0.3% is due after 0.2% beforehand. More importantly, Core CPI also ticked down, standing at 2.1% y/y. It is expected to remain at 2.1% on an annual basis but rise 0.2% m/m after 0.1% beforehand. The Fed is closely watching the data.

EU SUmmit on Brexit: Wednesday, leaders arrive at 16:00, but headlines are due before, during and after the gathering. All EU leaders, including UK PM Theresa May, convene at a special summit to discuss what to do with Brexit, just two days before the updated official exit date of April 12th. After repeatedly failing to pass the accord in Parliament, and after Parliament failed to come with alternative options in the process of “indicative votes”, May has asked for the same extension once again: only until June 30th. The aim is to prevent the UK from participating in the EU Parliament elections that are held on May 26th and the new MEP will convene for the first time on July 2nd. However, the EU wants the UK out by Friday or to grant a long extension. Despite some angry voices, coming especially from France, the EU is likely to grant a long extension and ask the UK to participate in the elections. A delay until March 2020 is on the cards. There can be quite a few ups and downs until that event, with ongoing talks between the government and the opposition Labour party, threats to oust May from her own party that does not want new elections, and preparations for a cliff-edge Brexit in the background. These are going to be quite a few busy days for pound traders. In general, the longer the extension, the higher the pound can go. And if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, Sterling could crash quite spectacularly.

FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. The Federal Reserve took a dovish twist in its March meeting by signaling no rate hikes in 2019 and announcing the early termination of the balance sheet reduction program in September. Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern about the global economy but seemed confident about the US one. The meeting minutes may shed more light on the thinking behind the move and will provide more data on the level of worry among officials. Comments on inflation and growth will be watched closely.

 

 

GBP
UK GDP

EUR
ECB decision
EU SUmmit on Brexit

USD
US inflation

  • EURUSD

 

Update: No changes, we remain the same. The daily chart shows that the pair is traded above a strong support level that is 1.1175 so we are bullish as long as the pair is traded above it. Our first target is 1.1350.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
 1.21
1.1850
▪ 1.18
▪ -
 1.1217
 1.1150

We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1.1175.

  • GBPUSD

 

Update: Still waiting for the pair to reach the resistance level. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded in an area where we cannot enter the market. So, we will be waiting for the pair to reach the level of 1.32 – 1.33 which is where we can go short in case the pair shows up some bearish evidence. Our first target is 1.29.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1.36
 1.3310
▪ 1.33
 1.29
 1.27
 1.26

We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1.33.

  • GOLD

 

Update: waiting for bearish evidence to show up below the resistance level. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded below a strong resistance level that is 1310. So, we will be waiting for some bearish evidence, in case this happens, we can go short targeting the level of 1285.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
 1350
 1365
 1285
 1180
 1170
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1310.

  • AUDUSD

 

Update: We remain the same. As we can see on the chart above that the pair is traded above a strong support level that is 0.70. So, we believe that as long as the pair is traded above it, it is highly recommended to go long targeting the level of 0.74 during the week.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:

▪ 0.7550
0.7600
▪ 0.
7260

▪ 0.7000
-
▪ -

We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 0.70.

  • GBPJPY

 

Update: No changes, we remain the same. Will the pair continue going down to reach the support level of 143.75 then we can go long again? Or will it breakthrough it and continue going down to reach the level of 141? Let the pair decide as we already know what we will do.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
156
 155
 149

 140
139
 138

Nothing to be done for now.


 

 

Disclaimer: The information contained in this publication is produced by Land-FX and not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Any opinion offered herein reflects Land-FX current judgment and may change without notice. This message is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. No representation or warranty is made that this information is complete or accurate. Any views or opinions expressed do not necessarily represent that Land-FX. This email and the information it contains may be confidential, proprietary or legally privileged. You must not, directly or indirectly, use, disclose, distribute, copy or store this message or any part of it if you are not the intended recipient. Unless otherwise stated, any pricing information given in this email is indicative only, is subject to changes and does not constitute an offer to deal at any price quoted.