13 September 2018
powered by Land Prime
Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. The Australian job market disappointed in July with a loss of 3,900 positions. The unemployment remained low at 5.3%. The report for August may see an uptick in jobs. The Aussie dollar suffered quite a bit of late and an upbeat labor market can help it recover. The number of positions is expected to rise by 18.4K and the jobless rate is not expected to move from 5.3%.
UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. The Bank of England increased the interest rate to 0.75% back in August, in a decision that was accompanied by the Quarterly Inflation Report. The BOE responded to rising inflation but despite a unanimous vote to move rates, Governor Mark Carney and his colleagues remain hesitant given the high level of uncertainty originating from Brexit. The MPC is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged at this meeting and probably the next ones until there is some clarity on Brexit or a significant change in the economic trajectory. The vote will likely be unanimous once again. Any votes for an additional hike could boost the pound.
Euro-zone rate decision: Thursday, the decision at 11:45, press conference by President Mario Draghi at 12:30. The European Central Bank reduces its bond-buying scheme at the end of the month to €15 billion from €30 billion so far. It intends to end purchases at the end of the year. Draghi and co. are unlikely to make any announcements. However, the recent drop in inflation and trade concerns may push them to paint a more dovish picture. In addition to the tone of the presser, the ECB releases new staff forecasts in this meeting. Any upgrade or downgrade of inflation and growth forecasts may be indicative of the next moves by the central bank. No big changes are on the cards. If Draghi says that downside risks have increased, it could be more meaningful.
US inflation: Thursday, 12:30. US core inflation reached a high of 2.4% y/y in July, supporting the case for a rate hike. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.2% in both the headline and the core figures. Headline inflation is expected to rise by 0.3% while core CPI carries expectations for +0.2%.
USD
US inflation
AUD
Australian jobs report
EUR
Euro-zone rate decision
GBP
UK rate decision
- EURUSD
Update: The pair went up that it is traded now right below the neck-line. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair formed a head and shoulders pattern. The second shoulder is being formed. Once it is formed, we will wait for the pair to break the neck-line of the pattern. It will be confirmed with a daily close above the neck-line. In case the neck-line is broken, it is expected that the pair might continue going up to reach the level of 1.1850.
| Resistance levels: |
Support levels: |
Recommended: |
▪ 1.21
▪ 1.1850
▪ 1.1780 |
▪ 1.15
▪ 1.1450
▪ 1.14 |
Waiting for the pair to break the neck-line of the head and shoulders pattern.
|
- GBPUSD
Update: Still traded below the downtrend line. The daily chart shows that the pair is traded below a strong resistance that is the downtrend line. In case the pair shows up some bearish evidence below it, we can go short targeting the level of 1.28 during the week. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading below the downtrend line.
| Resistance levels: |
Support levels: |
Recommended: |
▪ 1.36
▪ 1.35
▪ 1.31 |
▪
▪ 1.2650
▪ 1.2550 |
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the down trend line.
|
- GOLD
Update: We remain the same. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is traded below the downtrend line shown on the chart in blue. We believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1180 during the week. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading below the level of 1220.
| Resistance levels: |
Support levels: |
Recommended: |
▪ 1330
▪ 1320
▪ 1220 |
▪ 1200
▪ 1190
▪ 1180 |
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1220.
|
- AUDUSD
Update: Still waiting for a bullish signal. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is on its way to the level of 0.7050. In case the pair shows up some bullish evidence above it, we can go long targeting the level of 0.7350 during the week. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading above the level of 0.7050.
| Resistance levels: |
Support levels: |
Recommended: |
|
▪ 0.7550
▪ 0.7600
▪ 0.7260
|
▪ 0.7160
▪ 0.71
▪ |
We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 0.7050.
|
- GBPJPY
Update: The pair went through the upside of the descending channel but the breakout is not confirmed yet. The pair is traded within a descending channel. Just right below the upside of the pattern. In case the pair shows up some bearish evidence below it, we can go short targeting the level of 143 followed by 142 during the week.
| Resistance levels: |
Support levels: |
Recommended: |
▪ 156
▪ 155
▪ 146 |
▪ --
▪ --
▪ 140
|
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the upside of the pattern.
|
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