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Market Research & Info

Land-FX analyst Shadi Abdo

  • Member of The Egyptian Society of Technical Analyst
  • Head of Education department, Market Strategist, Chief Technical Analyst of Global Leading Forex Brokerage companies
  • Trained over 5000 professional trainers more than 10 years
  • BSc in Economics from Mansoura University

10 May 2018

powered by Land-FX

UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. This is one of the Bank of England’s “Super Thursday” events as in addition to the rate decision and the MPC Meeting Minutes, the BOE also publishes its all-important Quarterly Inflation Report. Until a few weeks ago, the BOE was expected to raise rates in this May decision. The BOE laid down thick hints it was coming. Yet recent data have been very disappointing: GDP grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q1, PMI figures point to an upcoming slowdown and Governor Mark Carney hinted that rates are not coming so soon. This accumulation of events resulted in expectations that the BOE leaves rates unchanged at 0.50% at this occasion. The focus will be on the forecasts for inflation (that also slowed down to 2.5%) and the messages about raising rates in the remainder of the year. If Carney and co. convey a message that the situation has worsened and that no hike is expected this year, the pound could extend its plunge. If they see the recent slowdown as temporary, like Draghi did when referring to the euro-zone, Sterling could recover.

US inflation: Thursday, 12:30. Core inflation finally jumped above 2% in March. It advanced to 2.1% y/y after stubbornly sticking to 1.8% for a long time. This time, a renewed drop to 1.9% is expected. A deterioration to 1.8% could lower expectations for rate hikes and could send the dollar down. Holding onto 2% would be good news for the greenback. On a monthly basis, Core CPI by 0.2% as in March. Headline CPI carries expectations for an increase of 0.3% after dropping in the previous month.

GBP
UK rate decision

USD
US inflation

  • EURUSD

 

Update: We remain the same. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair managed to break through a strong support level (the uptrend line which is a resistance level now) so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1.1700 during the week. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading below the broken uptrend line.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
 1.21
▪ 1.20
▪ --
▪ 1.17
 1.1650
 1.1600

We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the broken uptrend line.

  • GBPUSD

 

Update: On its way to its target. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair managed to break through a strong support level (the uptrend line which is a resistance level now) so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1.33 during the week. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading below the broken uptrend line.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1.3700
 1.3800
 --
▪ 1.3300
 1.3250
 1.3200

We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the broken uptrend line.

  • GOLD

 

Update: First target was hit, waiting for its second target 1330. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded above a strong support level (1300) so we believe that as long as the pair is traded above it, it is highly recommended to go long targeting the level of 1320 followed by 1330 during the week.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
 1330
 1320
 --
 1300
 1290
 1285

We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1300.

  • AUDUSD

 

Update: We remain the same. Will the pair continue going down to reach the uptrend line? In case the pair continues going down to reach the uptrend line, we will wait for it to reach it and then we can go long in case it shows up some bullish evidence.

 

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:

▪ 0.7550
0.7600
▪ --

▪ 0.7370
▪ 0.7300
--

Waiting for the pair to reach the up trendline

  • GBPJPY

 

Update: Today's candle is bearish but we remain bullish. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is traded above a strong support level that is the uptrend line. In case is shows up some bullish evidence above it, we can go long targeting the level of 150.50 during the week.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
156
 155
 150.50

147
 146

We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above uptrend line.

 

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