05 January 2018
powered by Land Prime
Euro-zone inflation: Friday, 10:00. The preliminary inflation report for December provides an overview of all of 2017 and will have an impact on the ECB’s decision later in the month. In November, headline CPI stood at 1.5%, which was similar to previous months and not too far from the ECB’s target of “2% or a bit below”. The disappointment came from core CPI, was remained stuck at 0.9%. Without a rise in core inflation, headline CPI may retreat as well. Headline CPI is expected to slide to 1.4% while core CPI carries expectations of an increase to 1% y/y.
US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 13:30. The jobs report for December also allows a full overview of 2017, which has seen solid gains in the number of positions while average hourly earnings hardly budged from 2.5%. The report for November refected these trends: a beat on the headline NFP with 228K alongside a mediocre rise of 0.2% m/m in wages or 2.5% y/y. The unemployment rate remains at rock-bottom levels, 4.1%, but as usual, it is accompanied by a low participation rate. The headline may provide the immediate reaction but wages normally take control after a few seconds, driving the reaction in the dollar. Headline NFP is expected to show a rise of 189K jobs and wages to rise by 0.3% m/m. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
Canadian jobs report: Friday, 13:30. Canada’s job market enjoyed an excellent month in November: no less than 79.5K positions were gained and the unemployment rate fell to 5.9%. This came after a few not-so-great months for the economy, but perhaps it is picking up once again. The publication for December will test if November’s report was the beginning of a trend or a one-off. A drop of 2.5K positions is on the cards while the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 6%.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. The second ISM report is more important, relating to a bigger sector, services. However, as it is published after the jobs report, it does not work as a hint. Nevertheless, it can move the market even when it’s published 90 minutes after the NFP. November saw a score of 57.4 which was a significant drop, but still representing robust growth. A small increase to 57.8 is expected. Note that the US releases factory orders at the same time. These fell by 0.1% last time. A jump of 1.5% predicted.
USD
US Non-Farm Payrolls
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
EUR
Euro-zone inflation
CAD
Canadian jobs report
- EURUSD
Update: The pair is still traded below the resistance level of 1.2100. The pair is traded below a strong resistance level that is 1.2100 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1.2000 during the week. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading below the level of 1.2100.
| Resistance levels: |
Support levels: |
Recommended: |
▪ 1.2300
▪ 1.2200
▪ 1.2100 |
▪ 1.1670
▪ 1.1600
▪ 1.1550 |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1.2100.
|
- GBPUSD
Update: We remain bearish. As could on the daily chart that the pair is traded below a strong resistance level that is 1.3650 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1.3400 during the week. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading below the level of 1.3650.
| Resistance levels: |
Support levels: |
Recommended: |
▪ 1.3650
|
▪ 1.3400
▪ 1.3250
▪ 1.3200 |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1.3650.
|
- GOLD
Update: We remain bullish. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is traded below a strong resistance level that is 1320 so we believe that in case this level is broken, we can go long targeting the level of 1330 during the week.
| Resistance levels: |
Support levels: |
Recommended: |
▪ 1340
▪ 1330
▪ 1320 |
▪ 1250
▪ 1240
▪ 1210
|
We are bullish in case the level of 1320 is broken.
|
- AUDUSD
Update: We remain the same. The pair may continue going up to reach the level of 0.7890. In case the pair shows negative factors, we can go short targeting the level of 0.7740. If the pair managed to break through the level of 0.7890 we can go long targeting the level of 0.7900.
| Resistance levels: |
Support levels: |
Recommended: |
|
▪ 0.8100
▪ 0.8060
▪ 0.7810
|
▪ 0.7740
▪ 0.7500 |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 0.7890.
|
- GBPJPY
Update: The pair has reached the resistance levels so let keep an eye on it. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded within an ascending channel but there is nowhere to enter the market now. So, we will be waiting for the pair to reach either the upside that is where we can go short or the down side where we can go long. Generally speaking, having the pair traded above the 50 EMA opens the door for further upward movement that the pair can reach the level of 153 during the week.
| Resistance levels: |
Support levels: |
Recommended: |
▪ 152.90
▪ 152 |
▪ 148
▪ 147
|
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded above the 50 ema.
|
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